Market phase (bull, bear, transition)
Market Structure· DE: Marktphase (Bulle, Bär, Übergang)
Bull, bear or transition from two backward-looking price clocks with one threshold of 365 days. A bull starts with the first close above the prior all-time high and ends when today’s price is older than 365 days (price-time displacement > 365). A bear follows and ends when today’s price went unmatched for 365 days (time since higher close > 365). Transition lasts until the next all-time high. A bull ending within 30 days is a false start and does not count. The 365-day window is a choice, not a measured optimum, and shapes the result. n = 4 completed BTC cycles: durations are description, not expectation. Not a signal.
Calculation
state machine over completed UTC daily closes: pre → bull (close > running ATH); bull → bear (displacement_days > 365; bull <= 30 days ⇒ false start, revert to previous phase unless it directly followed the series start); bear → transition (time_since_higher_close > 365 or null); bear/transition → bull (close > ATH). First bull of the series = lower bound, excluded from day shares. Threshold “bear ends above” = max close of the last 365 days; threshold path = how it falls if no higher close is added.
Unit & source
enum + days · tradingstrategies.work market-phase methodology
Values: bull, bear, recovery
Related terms
Definitions are for research and education. Metrics describe market conditions — not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.