Drawdown Probability
Probability· DE: Drawdown-Wahrscheinlichkeit
The base-rate probability of a significant intra-horizon drawdown — the share of historical windows in which BTC fell at least 20% below the entry price at some point before the horizon ended. The honest downside companion to the return distribution.
Calculation
For each window, max_drawdown = min over the forward window of price_t/price(d)−1; P = count(max_drawdown ≤ −20%) / count(windows) × 100 per horizon.
Unit & source
pct · tradingstrategies.work Probability Engine (forward-return base rate) methodology
Related terms
Definitions are for research and education. Metrics describe market conditions — not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.