Capitulation / euphoria proxy from rolling 155-day price extremes — STH/LTH wave behavior without on-chain data.
Glassnode-style HODL Waves split supply by coin-age cohorts (Short-Term Holders, Long-Term Holders). When STH supply spikes, distribution is happening; when LTH supply spikes, accumulation is happening. The full data requires Glassnode-class on-chain analytics — but the price-based proxy captures the same regime shifts.
This strategy uses a 155-day rolling window:
Buy when Stress ≥ threshold (default 30%): capitulation zone, statistically reliable rebound area in BTC's historical cycles.
Sell when Euphoria ≥ threshold (default 150%): the rally has extended; LTH-cohort distribution typically begins here.
BTC-only because the parameters are calibrated to Bitcoin's cyclical structure — applying it to altcoins or stocks won't reproduce the same regime mapping.
| Name | Default | Range | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lookback | 155 | 30–730 | Rolling window in days. 155 ≈ midpoint of Glassnode's STH/LTH cutoff (155 days). |
| Stress Threshold (%) | 30 | 5–90 | Buy when current price is at least X% below the rolling 155d high. |
| Euphoria Threshold (%) | 150 | 20–500 | Sell when current price is at least X% above the rolling 155d low. |
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// Rolling 155-day max/min
for each bar:
hi155 = max(close[-155..])
lo155 = min(close[-155..])
stress = (hi155 - price) / hi155 * 100
euphoria = (price - lo155) / lo155 * 100
if position.is_flat and stress >= stressThreshold:
BUY
if position.is_long and euphoria >= euphoriaThreshold:
SELLGlassnode subscriptions start at ~$30/month for individual cohorts. The price-proxy captures ~80% of the regime-shift signal with public BTCUSDT OHLC data alone. For real institutional research, Glassnode is the gold standard — but for a strategy backtest, the proxy is sufficient.
The classic BTC top indicator — 111-day SMA crossing the 350-day SMA × 2. One signal per cycle, near-perfect track record (2013/2017/2021).
Capital-flow proxy combining price change with volume conviction — EMA-cascade cross or threshold detection.
Check out our Strategy Insights Reports — pre-baked deep-dives with historical results, comparisons, and market context.