Solana — Cycle Position

As of 7 Oct 2026 · SOL · Point-in-time, price-derived · Explainable, not a trading signal

Overheated (cycle high)Cycle score 75/100Confidence 100%

Raw composite 46/100 from 3 of 3 price-derived indicators (mayer, rsi_w, ma200w), z-normalized against SOL's own history. Spot ≈ $117.86.

Cycle indicators

Mayer Multiple
Score 28.74 / 100
weight 37% · 72.3th pct (n=2049)
Weekly RSI
Score 62.32 / 100
weight 30% · 77.6th pct (n=2049)
200-Week MA distance
Score 51.57 / 100
weight 33% · 27.7th pct (n=856)

The composite cycle score sits at the 96.3th percentile of SOL's own history (n=856, regime-homogeneous) — historically hot.

Why SOL uses fewer indicators than Bitcoin (7 not applicable)

Bitcoin-native indicators are marked not_applicable rather than filled with pseudo-values — the gap stays visible, not broken:

  • halving — No halving schedule for non-Bitcoin assets.
  • btc dominance — Bitcoin-specific market-share metric.
  • mining difficulty — Proof-of-work difficulty is Bitcoin-native (ETH is PoS, SOL is PoS).
  • hash ribbons — Derived from Bitcoin miner hashrate.
  • fear greed — The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is a market-wide (BTC-led) index, not per-coin.
  • pi cycle — Pi-Cycle constants (113/355DMA top, 471×0.745/150DMA bottom) are empirically calibrated to Bitcoin halving cycles and do not transfer.
  • onchain valuation — MVRV-Z / Puell / BRK on-chain series are Bitcoin-only in this dataset.
Source & reproducibility
  • Object: ko:alt_cycle:sol:2026-10-07
  • Engine: alt-cycle-engine v1.0.0
  • As of: 7 Oct 2026 · computed 2026-10-07
  • Source: alt_cycle_snapshots (SOL) · computed look-ahead-free

Related knowledge

This is a descriptive, explainable cycle read for research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Percentile and historical figures describe the past; they do not predict the future.

Dig into the data

Backtest strategies on SOL, or query the Solana cycle via the API/MCP (arena_get_cycle).

← Market stateUpdated 7 Oct 2026