Fundamental Base Rate · REVENUE_GROWTH

Revenue growth, US SEC filers (8,740 firms, banks excluded, REITs separate): a firm in the top quartile for 1 year stays there next year at 44.1 % vs 23.2 % base (Δ +20.9 pp, n 6,981); after 3 years in a row at 50.4 % vs 20.7 % base (Δ +29.7 pp, n 706). Counting every firm that stopped filing as "did not hold": 37.1 % (k = 1) / 42.9 % (k = 3) — 53.8 % of the sample no longer files a 10-K after FY2023, and the truth lies between both numbers. Caution: U-shaped dose response — the weakest decile also lands in the top quartile at 37.2 %, so part of this is volatility. Every number comes from one regime window: fiscal years 2011–2025, which contain exactly one recession (NBER, Feb–Apr 2020, two months). No prices, no returns; descriptive, not a stock pick.