Fundamental Base Rate · RETURN_ON_ASSETS

Return on assets, US SEC filers (8,531 firms, banks excluded, REITs separate): a firm in the top quartile for 1 year stays there next year at 74.8 % vs 25.9 % base (Δ +48.9 pp, n 6,324); after 3 years in a row at 83.7 % vs 27.4 % base (Δ +56.3 pp, n 1,618). Counting every firm that stopped filing as "did not hold": 65.2 % (k = 1) / 67.2 % (k = 3) — 55.1 % of the sample no longer files a 10-K after FY2023, and the truth lies between both numbers. Every number comes from one regime window: fiscal years 2011–2025, which contain exactly one recession (NBER, Feb–Apr 2020, two months). No prices, no returns; descriptive, not a stock pick.