Does Bullmarket (Early) help Williams Alligator?
Crypto · 237 backtest runs · As of 10 Aug 2026 · Methodology
Not DecidableDSR ✗ not confirmed
Enough runs, but they disagree: the effect's 90% interval straddles the ±1 percentage-point line. Claiming a direction would assert more precision than the data supports.
CAGR Comparison
Baseline CAGR
7.3%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
11.2%
Bullmarket (Early)
Δ CAGR
+3.90%
Sample
237
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
6.9%
after costs
Filtered Net CAGR
10.8%
after costs
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Baseline Sharpe
0.082
median
Filtered Sharpe
0.200
Δ Sharpe
+0.12
DSR
0.0%
not confirmed
How does this filter work?
BUY signals already under the early bull market criterion
DSR Methodology
▼
DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 0.7929 (expected best Sharpe from 9 random filter trials).
Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 0.0%.
Full analysis in Edge Library
Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.
← All edge reportsComputed 10 Aug 2026 · Methodology