Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Does Altcoin Season Filter help Williams Alligator?

Crypto · 628 backtest runs · As of 31 Aug 2026 · Methodology

HurtsDSR ✗ not confirmed

This filter reduces median CAGR, with the entire 90% interval below −1 percentage point — either more false signals or too many blocked trades.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
0.0%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
-3.9%
Altcoin Season Filter
Δ CAGR
-12.10%
Sample
628
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-0.4%
after costs
Filtered Net CAGR
-4.3%
after costs

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.014
median
Filtered Sharpe
-0.059
Δ Sharpe
-0.17
DSR
0.0%
not confirmed

How does this filter work?

BUY signals only during altcoin season — pooled across both modes (aggressive + conservative)

DSR Methodology

DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 0.7939 (expected best Sharpe from 9 random filter trials).

Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 0.0%.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

← All edge reportsComputed 31 Aug 2026 · Methodology