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Does ATR High Volatility help Supertrend?

Crypto · 579 backtest runs · As of 19 Oct 2026 · Methodology

Helps✗ below the multiple-testing threshold

This filter increases median CAGR — clearly enough that the entire 90% interval sits above +1 percentage point, not just the point estimate.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
-21.6%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
-4.9%
ATR High Volatility
Δ CAGR
+4.32%
Sample
579
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-22.7%
after fee + slippage
Filtered Net CAGR
-6.6%
after fee + slippage

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.364
median
Filtered Sharpe
-0.274
Δ Sharpe
-0.11
Threshold SR̂₀
0.260
Sharpe does not clear it

How does this filter work?

Signals only in high ATR regime

Multiple-testing threshold

▼

Testing several filters on the same data raises the chance that one looks good by luck. SR̂₀ = 0.260 is the Sharpe the best of 11 trials (no filter + every filter of this strategy) would reach by chance alone — computed from the spread of these trials' Sharpe values (extreme-value formula per Bailey & López de Prado 2014).

The filter passes when its Sharpe (-0.274) lies above SR̂₀. This is a threshold test, not a probability: a true Deflated Sharpe would need each run's period count, skew and kurtosis. All Sharpe values are annualized over 365 calendar days.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

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