Backtesting ArenaBacktesting Arena

Does ATR Expansion help RSI OB/OS?

Crypto · 213 backtest runs · As of 19 Oct 2026 · Methodology

Not Decidable✗ below the multiple-testing threshold

Enough runs, but they disagree: the effect's 90% interval straddles the ±1 percentage-point line. Claiming a direction would assert more precision than the data supports.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
-16.9%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
-2.7%
ATR Expansion
Δ CAGR
+3.90%
Sample
213
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-17.5%
after fee + slippage
Filtered Net CAGR
-4.1%
after fee + slippage

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.042
median
Filtered Sharpe
-0.082
Δ Sharpe
-0.03
Threshold SR̂₀
0.215
Sharpe does not clear it

How does this filter work?

Signals only during ATR expansion (trend onset)

Multiple-testing threshold

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Testing several filters on the same data raises the chance that one looks good by luck. SR̂₀ = 0.215 is the Sharpe the best of 11 trials (no filter + every filter of this strategy) would reach by chance alone — computed from the spread of these trials' Sharpe values (extreme-value formula per Bailey & López de Prado 2014).

The filter passes when its Sharpe (-0.082) lies above SR̂₀. This is a threshold test, not a probability: a true Deflated Sharpe would need each run's period count, skew and kurtosis. All Sharpe values are annualized over 365 calendar days.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

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