Does Bullmarket (Early) help Index Regime (200-Day)?
Crypto · 204 backtest runs · As of 10 Aug 2026 · Methodology
HelpsDSR ✗ not confirmed
This filter increases median CAGR — clearly enough that the entire 90% interval sits above +1 percentage point, not just the point estimate.
CAGR Comparison
Baseline CAGR
-11.0%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
-5.8%
Bullmarket (Early)
Δ CAGR
+5.20%
Sample
204
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-11.5%
after costs
Filtered Net CAGR
-6.5%
after costs
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Baseline Sharpe
-0.227
median
Filtered Sharpe
-0.159
Δ Sharpe
+0.07
DSR
0.0%
not confirmed
How does this filter work?
BUY signals already under the early bull market criterion
DSR Methodology
▼
DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 0.7649 (expected best Sharpe from 9 random filter trials).
Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 0.0%.
Full analysis in Edge Library
Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.
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