Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Does Bullmarket (Confirmed) help OBV-MACD?

Crypto · 263 backtest runs · As of 17 Aug 2026 · Methodology

HelpsDSR ✗ not confirmed

This filter increases median CAGR — clearly enough that the entire 90% interval sits above +1 percentage point, not just the point estimate.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
-10.8%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
9.6%
Bullmarket (Confirmed)
Δ CAGR
+20.40%
Sample
263
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-11.4%
after costs
Filtered Net CAGR
8.8%
after costs

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.145
median
Filtered Sharpe
0.165
Δ Sharpe
+0.31
DSR
0.0%
not confirmed

How does this filter work?

BUY signals only in confirmed bull market

DSR Methodology

DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 1.3774 (expected best Sharpe from 9 random filter trials).

Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 0.0%.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

← All edge reportsComputed 17 Aug 2026 · Methodology