Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Does Altcoin Season Filter help OBV-MACD?

Crypto · 540 backtest runs · As of 31 Aug 2026 · Methodology

Not DecidableDSR ✗ not confirmed

Enough runs, but they disagree: the effect's 90% interval straddles the ±1 percentage-point line. Claiming a direction would assert more precision than the data supports.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
-27.2%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
-2.6%
Altcoin Season Filter
Δ CAGR
-0.22%
Sample
540
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-27.9%
after costs
Filtered Net CAGR
-3.2%
after costs

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.287
median
Filtered Sharpe
-0.052
Δ Sharpe
-0.19
DSR
0.0%
not confirmed

How does this filter work?

BUY signals only during altcoin season — pooled across both modes (aggressive + conservative)

DSR Methodology

DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 1.3664 (expected best Sharpe from 9 random filter trials).

Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 0.0%.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

← All edge reportsComputed 31 Aug 2026 · Methodology