Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Does Min Profit Guard help MACD Cross?

Crypto · 246 backtest runs · As of 12 Sept 2026 · Methodology

Not DecidableDSR ✗ not confirmed

Enough runs, but they disagree: the effect's 90% interval straddles the ±1 percentage-point line. Claiming a direction would assert more precision than the data supports.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
-23.3%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
7.5%
Min Profit Guard
Δ CAGR
-2.05%
Sample
246
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-24.2%
after costs
Filtered Net CAGR
6.6%
after costs

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.356
median
Filtered Sharpe
0.122
Δ Sharpe
0.00
DSR
0.0%
not confirmed

How does this filter work?

SELL signals only past −10 % open result — holds losers longer

DSR Methodology

DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 1.0627 (expected best Sharpe from 10 random filter trials).

Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 0.0%.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

← All edge reportsComputed 12 Sept 2026 · Methodology