Backtesting ArenaBacktesting Arena

Does ATR Low Volatility help Ichimoku Cloud?

Crypto · 266 backtest runs · As of 26 Oct 2026 · Methodology

Not Decidable✗ below the multiple-testing threshold

Enough runs, but they disagree: the effect's 90% interval straddles the ±1 percentage-point line. Claiming a direction would assert more precision than the data supports.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
-6.2%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
0.1%
ATR Low Volatility
Δ CAGR
-4.05%
Sample
266
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-7.5%
after fee + slippage
Filtered Net CAGR
-0.9%
after fee + slippage

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.141
median
Filtered Sharpe
0.004
Δ Sharpe
-0.03
Threshold SR̂₀
0.209
Sharpe does not clear it

How does this filter work?

Signals only in low ATR regime

Multiple-testing threshold

▼

Testing several filters on the same data raises the chance that one looks good by luck. SR̂₀ = 0.209 is the Sharpe the best of 11 trials (no filter + every filter of this strategy) would reach by chance alone — computed from the spread of these trials' Sharpe values (extreme-value formula per Bailey & López de Prado 2014).

The filter passes when its Sharpe (0.004) lies above SR̂₀. This is a threshold test, not a probability: a true Deflated Sharpe would need each run's period count, skew and kurtosis. All Sharpe values are annualized over 365 calendar days.

Full analysis in Edge Library

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