Backtesting ArenaBacktesting Arena

Does Min Profit Guard help Golden Cross?

Crypto · 585 backtest runs · As of 26 Oct 2026 · Methodology

Not Decidable✗ below the multiple-testing threshold

Enough runs, but they disagree: the effect's 90% interval straddles the ±1 percentage-point line. Claiming a direction would assert more precision than the data supports.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
-22.3%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
-25.3%
Min Profit Guard
Δ CAGR
-3.57%
Sample
585
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-22.7%
after fee + slippage
Filtered Net CAGR
-25.5%
after fee + slippage

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.393
median
Filtered Sharpe
-0.421
Δ Sharpe
+0.00
Threshold SR̂₀
0.121
Sharpe does not clear it

How does this filter work?

SELL signals only past −10 % open result — holds losers longer

Multiple-testing threshold

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Testing several filters on the same data raises the chance that one looks good by luck. SR̂₀ = 0.121 is the Sharpe the best of 11 trials (no filter + every filter of this strategy) would reach by chance alone — computed from the spread of these trials' Sharpe values (extreme-value formula per Bailey & López de Prado 2014).

The filter passes when its Sharpe (-0.421) lies above SR̂₀. This is a threshold test, not a probability: a true Deflated Sharpe would need each run's period count, skew and kurtosis. All Sharpe values are annualized over 365 calendar days.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

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