Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Does Bullmarket (Early) help EMA Trend Bias?

Crypto · 204 backtest runs · As of 28 Jul 2026 · Methodology

NeutralDSR ✗ not confirmed

No material CAGR effect (±1pp vs. baseline). Filter may still reduce drawdown.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
-4.0%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
-4.1%
Bullmarket (Early)
Δ CAGR
-0.10%
Sample
204
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-4.2%
after costs
Filtered Net CAGR
-4.3%
after costs

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.018
median
Filtered Sharpe
-0.078
Δ Sharpe
-0.06
DSR
0.0%
not confirmed

How does this filter work?

BUY signals already under the early bull market criterion

DSR Methodology

DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 0.7427 (expected best Sharpe from 9 random filter trials).

Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 0.0%.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

← All edge reportsComputed 28 Jul 2026 · Methodology