Does Bullmarket (Confirmed) help EMA Trend Bias?
Crypto · 103 backtest runs · As of 22 Jun 2026 · Methodology
NeutralDSR ✗ not confirmed
No material CAGR effect (±1pp vs. baseline). Filter may still reduce drawdown.
CAGR Comparison
Baseline CAGR
-3.0%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
-2.4%
Bullmarket (Confirmed)
Δ CAGR
+0.60%
Sample
103
runs
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Baseline Sharpe
0.036
median
Filtered Sharpe
-0.040
Δ Sharpe
-0.08
DSR
0.0%
not confirmed
How does this filter work?
BUY signals only in confirmed bull market
DSR Methodology
DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 0.5686 (expected best Sharpe from 7 random filter trials).
Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 0.0%.
Full analysis in Edge Library
Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.
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