Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Does Altcoin Season Filter help EMA Cross?

Crypto · 448 backtest runs · As of 9 Jun 2026 · Methodology

HurtsDSR ✓ confirmed

This filter reduces median CAGR by more than 1 percentage point — either more false signals or too many blocked trades.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
27.9%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
16.5%
Altcoin Season Filter
Δ CAGR
-11.35%
Sample
448
runs

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
0.628
median
Filtered Sharpe
0.265
Δ Sharpe
-0.36
DSR
98.1%
confirmed ≥90%

How does this filter work?

BUY signals only during altcoin season

DSR Methodology

DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 0.5750 (expected best Sharpe from 7 random filter trials).

Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 98.1%.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

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