Arena Blog
Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.
1–3 of 3 posts
Does Dual Momentum Really Beat Buy & Hold? We Backtested It.
Dual Momentum supposedly beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown. Our GTAA-5 backtest (2007–2026) says otherwise: not on return — but clearly on drawdown.
The 200-Day Line: Beats Buy & Hold on Crypto, Sleep-Well on Index ETFs
The 200-day line is the most-cited trend filter in markets: invested above it, out below it. We tested it as a standalone strategy across 110 assets. The result is not one-size-fits-all — on crypto it beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown AND Sharpe; on index ETFs it gives up almost no return while nearly halving the drawdown; on single stocks it works poorly. An honest map of where regime timing pays and where it doesn't.
Why 80% Win Rate Doesn't Mean You're Making Money
Open any signal-service landing page. The first number you see is almost always a win rate. 76%. 82%. 91%.
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