Arena Blog
Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.
13–24 of 33 posts · page 2 of 3
Coin Days Destroyed as a Bitcoin Signal: The Pattern Is Real. The Edge Is Not.
Rising Bitcoin while long-term holders sit still counts as deeply bullish on-chain. We replicated the pattern — and asked the one question missing: compared to what?
The Median Altcoin Loses to Bitcoin in 3 of 4 Quarters. "Uptrending" Makes It Worse.
Screeners label altcoins "uptrending vs BTC" and stop there. We measured what followed the label across 370 pairs and 458,000 days — and what followed any day.
When a Backtest Result Is Just Noise: Four of Our Own Studies That Failed
When is a backtest result a false positive? Four of our own studies failed — against four rules we locked before looking. What each one caught.
Backtest baseline: how our comparison value broke — and what 20 flipped verdicts show
The baseline in a backtest is what everything else is measured against. Ours was 62 % runs with a filter switched on. What that shifted, and what we changed.
Leverage Backtest: Why More Leverage Rarely Means More Return
A leverage backtest rarely shows more return – often less. Why effective exposure = position × leverage decides, and where 5× would have liquidated your strategy in 2018.
The Wyckoff Spring, Backtested: We Locked the Rules First — Here's the Result
We pre-registered a Wyckoff spring backtest: rules locked first, 10 pairs, placebo control. The result is a clean nothing — and short-term even negative.
Stacking More Sats With Altcoin Rotation? 45 Tests, One Answer
Stacking more sats by rotating between altcoins, BTC and stablecoins sounds compelling. We measured it across 45 test cases. The result: less BTC than doing nothing.
The Wyckoff Method Explained — What the Research Says, and the Rules We Lock Before Testing
The Wyckoff schematic is among the best-known models in trading. Under its own name it is barely tested — the mechanism behind it is, and it contradicts the Spring at one decisive point. Here is how it works, why phases cannot be counted, and the exact rules plus control group for our test — published before a single number exists.
Why Honest Backtesting Looks Different
A backtest showing +900% is usually an illusion — built from one lucky entry, too few trades, and the wrong benchmark. Four principles we hold ourselves to: the average of all entries, the 30-trade line, Average Buy & Hold, and out-of-sample testing.
Backtest Tokenized Stocks: How Equities, ETFs and Gold Returned to the Arena
acktest tokenized stocks — without a market-data licence. Why the on-chain price opens the door, and where the limits are.
The Coinbase Premium Index: What It Measures, What It Doesn't, and How to Test It
The Coinbase Premium Index is read as a thermometer for US demand. It measures a price gap, not a flow — and its denominator is not a dollar. What it can carry, where it breaks, what the Korea premium reveals about it, and the six tests a backtest needs.
When Simulations Lie: What Persi Diaconis Actually Said About Convergence and Proof
Persi Diaconis shows a simulation can run for thousands of hours, look stable, and still be wrong. What he actually said about convergence and proof.
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