Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena Blog

Arena Blog

Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.

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13–18 of 18 posts · page 2 of 2

Backtesting

Why your Sharpe ratio lies — and how we correct for it

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Every additional backtest run increases the chance of finding good results by luck. The Deflated Sharpe Ratio (DSR) corrects for exactly this: it measures whether your result is real — or the best noise from N trials. Pro+ feature.

deflated-sharpeoverfittingbacktesting+2
Jun 14, 20261 min
Backtesting

Look-Ahead-Bias — The Most Common Mistake in Self-Built Backtests, and Why 200% Returns Usually Lie

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Most traders writing their own backtests accidentally look into the future. The result: spectacular backtests, collapsing live performance. A look at the subtlest methodology mistake in systematic trading — from the common `shift(-N)` to the innocuous `.mean()` aggregation without rolling window — and why we manually check every Backtesting Arena strategy for bias before release.

Look-Ahead-BiasBacktestingMethodik+5
Jun 4, 20261 min
Backtesting

How to Backtest Token Unlocks: FDV, Dilution & the Hyperliquid Lesson

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

A buy signal fires — but the unlock calendar says a large tranche of supply hits the market in nine days. Do you take the trade? Using Hyperliquid and the FDV debate as the case: what the FDV-to-market-cap ratio really means, what token unlocks empirically do to price — and the one point-in-time trap that quietly makes almost every retroactive test worthless.

TokenomicsFDVToken-Unlocks+6
May 30, 20261 min
Backtesting

10,000 Backtests in 6 Weeks — What the Data Says About Us

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

41 days ago, the first backtest ran in the Arena. Today, we crossed **10,000**. Average pace: **248 backtests per day**, every day. We didn't see this coming — and the numbers say more about you than about us.

BacktestCryptoBitcoin
May 21, 20261 min
Backtesting

Tokenized Commodities — What Backtesters Should Know About SLVon, USOon, and COPXon

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

Tokenized commodities are a $5.3B market — almost entirely gold. But silver, oil, and copper on-chain are now growing fast. What that technically means — and why these tokens can't (yet) be backtested like a classic ETF.

RWATokenisierungCommodities+3
Apr 28, 20261 min
Backtesting

Why We Currently Use Binance Data Only — And What That Has to Do With Honest Backtesting

Backtesting Arenatradingstrategies.work

MEXC lists 3,000 coins, Binance 'only' 400. We still deliberately use Binance data exclusively. The reason is simple: a backtest is only as good as its price history. Here's why data quality beats coin count.

backtesting data qualityBinance historyprice history backtesting+3
Apr 20, 20261 min
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