Historical Analogue
Similarity· DE: Historische Analogie
The past dates whose market fingerprint most closely resembles today's, together with what happened next — answering 'when did BTC look like this before, and how did it play out?'. A distribution of historical outcomes, not a point forecast.
Calculation
Fingerprint = the 9 cycle-indicator scores (0–100) of btc_cycle_snapshots. Distance = weighted Euclidean using the market-pulse WEIGHTS (Σw=1 ⇒ max 100 ⇒ similarity_pct = (1−dist/100)·100). Analogues = the top-10 most similar days ≥21 days apart, each with a fully-known +90d forward window (no look-ahead). Provenance of each analogue is stored in explanation.historical_refs.
Unit & source
similarity_pct + outcome · tradingstrategies.work Historical-Analogue / Similarity Engine methodology
Related terms
Knowledge objects measuring this
Definitions are for research and education. Metrics describe market conditions — not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.