Zone Base Rate

Probability· DE: Zonen-Basisrate

The empirical forward-return distribution (30/90/180/365d) for a named catalog STATE, measured on the asset's OWN expanding percentile ranks rather than on absolute thresholds — so the same zone means the same thing on BTC, ETH and SOL without re-calibration. The state-conditional companion to event_base_rate (event-conditional) and return_probability (unconditional). Descriptive, not a signal.

Calculation
A zone is a closed set of pct_band predicates over the price-derived cycle scores (mayer, rsi_weekly). A day matches when every band contains that day's expanding percentile rank — computed from data up to that day only, the day itself counted, null below 500 observations (so a young listing has no rank and therefore no zone). Two counts are reported separately: `spans` = contiguous matching stretches (what a chart shades, gap tolerance 3 days for data holes) and `matched_episodes` = matching days collapsed with a cooldown of the largest horizon so outcome windows never overlap (the n behind the distribution). Below 8 episodes the payload states "no verdict" in plain text. Band widths were calibrated in 2026-09 against the measured joint selectivity of the existing absolute-threshold presets (7.9 % / 5.3 % of BTC history), never against an outcome. The catalog is finite and declared, so its trial count is known (declared_catalog_trials).
Unit & source
distribution · tradingstrategies.work zone base rate (SPEC-asset-chart-web-v1 L17-L20) methodology

Related terms

Knowledge objects measuring this

Definitions are for research and education. Metrics describe market conditions — not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.