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Does 200 WMA Filter help EMA Trend Bias?

Crypto · 99 backtest runs · As of 9 Jun 2026 · Methodology

HurtsDSR ✗ not confirmed

This filter reduces median CAGR by more than 1 percentage point — either more false signals or too many blocked trades.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
2.8%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
1.5%
200 WMA Filter
Δ CAGR
-1.30%
Sample
99
runs

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
0.455
median
Filtered Sharpe
0.126
Δ Sharpe
-0.33
DSR
22.5%
not confirmed

How does this filter work?

BUY signals only when price > 200-week MA

DSR Methodology

DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 0.3518 (expected best Sharpe from 7 random filter trials).

Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 22.5%.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

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