Analogue Forward Return
Similarity· DE: Analog-Forward-Return
The distribution of what BTC did after the historical analogue days — median, mean, min, max forward return over 30 and 90 days. The core probability read: 'given today looks like these periods, here is the historical range of outcomes.'
Calculation
For each analogue date, forward_return = price(date + horizon) / price(date) − 1, resolved date-based with ±5-day tolerance; aggregated (median/mean/min/max) over the selected analogues per horizon (30d, 90d).
Unit & source
pct · tradingstrategies.work Historical-Analogue / Similarity Engine methodology
Related terms
Definitions are for research and education. Metrics describe market conditions — not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.