
Arena Blog
Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.
We Just Shipped an API That Charges $0.01 Per Call — In USDC, On-Chain, No Account
Phase 4 is live: the same Bitcoin cycle data, on-chain indicators, and aggregated strategy insights now reachable through three channels — REST, MCP, and x402 pay-per-call in USDC on Base. No account required for the third. An AI agent gets HTTP 402, signs a USDC authorization, retries, and has the data three seconds later. What's actually live, why we built it this way, and the Coinbase detour that cost us a day.
We're Opening Our API: REST + MCP + (soon) x402
For 18 months we've been quietly building Backtesting Arena — a platform where 500+ users have run 10,000+ backtests across Bitcoin, stocks, ETFs, commodities, and forex. Daily cycle scores, on-chain indicators, sentiment dashboards, strategy insights. All powered by the same data layer that's been running on a private quasi-API.
AI Agents and Crypto Payments: Where This Is Really Heading
This is the crypto-rail deep-dive companion to our earlier piece [AI and the Future of Payment Systems](https://tradingstrategies.work/blog/ai-future-of-payment-systems-2026), which covered the broader fintech picture including Visa Intelligent Commerce and Mastercard Agent Pay. Here we zoom in on what's happening on the crypto layer specifically.
Why the same strategy crushes crypto and bombs the S&P 500
We ran the same RSI/SMA crossover across the top 50 coins and the top 50 US stocks — identical rules, identical window. On crypto it beats the buy-and-hold benchmark 80 % of the time; on stocks, 4 %. Why a trend-following strategy works in one market and bleeds in the other.
The Gap-Fill Myth: Do Price Gaps Really Fill — and the End of the CME Gap
"Price gaps always fill" is a myth. What the evidence actually shows — for stock gaps, and for the CME gap, which became history in May 2026.
STRC & MSTR Explained: Mechanics, Myths, Risks and Opportunities
STRC is below par and the debate is loud. We separate mechanics from myth: how STRC and MSTR work, the misconceptions circulating, and where the risk and the opportunity sit.
The Yen Carry Trade, Explained: How It Moves Stocks and Crypto
The yen carry trade is the hidden fuel of global markets. With real numbers: how it works, why it blew up in 2024, and what it means for stocks and Bitcoin today.
Does Dual Momentum Really Beat Buy & Hold? We Backtested It.
Dual Momentum supposedly beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown. Our GTAA-5 backtest (2007–2026) says otherwise: not on return — but clearly on drawdown.
The 200-Day Line: Beats Buy & Hold on Crypto, Sleep-Well on Index ETFs
The 200-day line is the most-cited trend filter in markets: invested above it, out below it. We tested it as a standalone strategy across 110 assets. The result is not one-size-fits-all — on crypto it beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown AND Sharpe; on index ETFs it gives up almost no return while nearly halving the drawdown; on single stocks it works poorly. An honest map of where regime timing pays and where it doesn't.
From Elliott Wave to an Actual Trade Plan: A Tool That Makes Your Count Falsifiable
Elliott Wave is subjective in real time. This tool doesn't count waves — it makes your count falsifiable: dip, target, invalidation set upfront, sized to risk.
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