Invested above the 200-day line, cash below. Meb Faber's classic trend filter — roughly Buy & Hold returns at a fraction of the drawdown.
Index Regime is the simplest, most-documented tactical strategy: it follows the long-term trend with a single moving average and nothing else.
The decision is made on each completed bar and acted on at that bar's close — long-only, no shorting. Meb Faber's A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation showed this rule delivers roughly buy-and-hold returns across major asset classes while cutting the maximum drawdown by about half, because it sidesteps the deepest parts of sustained bear markets (2008, 2020, 2022).
This is a separate strategy from the 200-week MA filter elsewhere in the app: that filter is a 200-week SMA gate layered on top of other strategies; this is a 200-day SMA regime as a standalone strategy. The honest takeaway: it rarely beats buy-and-hold on raw return — its value is drawdown reduction and a smoother ride. In our own multi-asset backtest it cut drawdowns on essentially every asset, was roughly return-neutral on broad index ETFs, and actually beat buy-and-hold on crypto (where bear markets trend hard and deep).
| Name | Default | Range | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regime SMA Period | 200 | 20–400 | Lookback for the regime moving average. 200 days is the Faber classic. |
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// Long-only, regime by single SMA
sma = SMA(close, maPeriod)
if position.is_flat and close > sma:
BUY
if position.is_long and close <= sma:
SELL // to 100% cashNo. The 200-week MA filter is a 200-WEEK SMA gate you layer on top of other strategies. This is a 200-DAY SMA used as a standalone regime strategy. Different timeframe, different role.
Sitting in cash during downtrends means you also miss some of the sharp recoveries that begin below the average. Over a full cycle that roughly cancels the return you saved on the way down — but you took far less drawdown to get there. On crypto, where bear markets are deeper and trend harder, avoiding them does add return.
Broad index ETFs (return-neutral, big drawdown cut — the classic 'sleep well' trade) and crypto (beats buy-and-hold on return and drawdown). It works least well on single stocks.
The classic trend-following signal — when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA, the trend has flipped bullish.
Two weighted moving averages crossing — recent candles weight more, signals fire faster than SMA-based crosses. Validated on BTC weekly.
The ratcheting ATR-based trend follower — one of the most popular indicators on TradingView. Dynamic stop levels that lock in as the trend confirms.
Check out our Strategy Insights Reports — pre-baked deep-dives with historical results, comparisons, and market context.