Invested above the 200-day line, cash below. Meb Faber's classic trend filter — roughly Buy & Hold returns at a fraction of the drawdown.
Basis: 1815 user backtests · BTCUSDT · 1d · 4 years
Index Regime is the simplest, most-documented tactical strategy: it follows the long-term trend with a single moving average and nothing else.
The decision is made on each completed bar and acted on at that bar's close — long-only, no shorting. Meb Faber's A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation showed this rule delivers roughly buy-and-hold returns across major asset classes while cutting the maximum drawdown by about half, because it sidesteps the deepest parts of sustained bear markets (2008, 2020, 2022).
This is a separate strategy from the 200-week MA filter elsewhere in the app: that filter is a 200-week SMA gate layered on top of other strategies; this is a 200-day SMA regime as a standalone strategy. The honest takeaway: it rarely beats buy-and-hold on raw return — its value is drawdown reduction and a smoother ride. In our own multi-asset backtest it cut drawdowns on essentially every asset, was roughly return-neutral on broad index ETFs, and actually beat buy-and-hold on crypto (where bear markets trend hard and deep).
| Name | Default | Range | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regime SMA Period | 200 | 20–400 | Lookback for the regime moving average. 200 days is the Faber classic. |
The pre-baked mini-backtest is refreshed daily — check back soon or start a live run in the Arena.
Run in Arena →Top-10 assets by average CAGR (1d interval), aggregated from community + platform backtests. Actual results depend on parameters and period.
| Asset | CAGR | vs B&H | ★ | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MATICUSDT | +90.2% | — | 72 | 8 |
| FTMUSDT | +88.0% | +40.1pp | 66 | 9 |
| SOLUSDT | +62.8% | +54.8pp | 66 | 10 |
| DOGEUSDT | +61.8% | +60.0pp | 64 | 10 |
| AKTUSDT | +43.5% | +77.5pp | 64 | 9 |
| ETHUSDT | +40.0% | +32.2pp | 55 | 9 |
| TELUSDT | +37.6% | +43.2pp | 60 | 10 |
| PEPEUSDT | +36.7% | +77.7pp | 64 | 1 |
| ADAUSDT | +30.2% | +49.8pp | 62 | 9 |
| BTCUSDT | +27.2% | +2.6pp | 50 | 13 |
One backtest per pair on default parameters since 2018, net of cost, and the out-of-sample verdict over the same window. Recomputed daily. Unlike the table above, not an average over many runs.
BTCUSDT · daily · default settings
Holds on the held-out segment (net of cost) — not a promise of profit.
Today: invested since 2026-08-19
ETHUSDT · daily · default settings
27 closed round-trips — a verdict needs 30.
Today: invested since 2026-08-19
// Long-only, regime by single SMA
sma = SMA(close, maPeriod)
if position.is_flat and close > sma:
BUY
if position.is_long and close <= sma:
SELL // to 100% cashNo. The 200-week MA filter is a 200-WEEK SMA gate you layer on top of other strategies. This is a 200-DAY SMA used as a standalone regime strategy. Different timeframe, different role.
Sitting in cash during downtrends means you also miss some of the sharp recoveries that begin below the average. Over a full cycle that roughly cancels the return you saved on the way down — but you took far less drawdown to get there. On crypto, where bear markets are deeper and trend harder, avoiding them does add return.
Broad index ETFs (return-neutral, big drawdown cut — the classic 'sleep well' trade) and crypto (beats buy-and-hold on return and drawdown). It works least well on single stocks.
The classic trend-following signal — when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA, the trend has flipped bullish.
Two weighted moving averages crossing — recent candles weight more, signals fire faster than SMA-based crosses. Validated on BTC weekly.
The ratcheting ATR-based trend follower — one of the most popular indicators on TradingView. Dynamic stop levels that lock in as the trend confirms.
Check out our Strategy Insights Reports — pre-baked deep-dives with historical results, comparisons, and market context.