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Does ATR Low Volatility help RSI / SMA Cross?

Crypto · 515 backtest runs · As of 19 Oct 2026 · Methodology

Not Decidable✗ below the multiple-testing threshold

Enough runs, but they disagree: the effect's 90% interval straddles the ±1 percentage-point line. Claiming a direction would assert more precision than the data supports.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
-22.9%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
3.5%
ATR Low Volatility
Δ CAGR
+4.05%
Sample
515
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-29.3%
after fee + slippage
Filtered Net CAGR
-0.7%
after fee + slippage

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.341
median
Filtered Sharpe
0.091
Δ Sharpe
+0.04
Threshold SR̂₀
0.303
Sharpe does not clear it

How does this filter work?

Signals only in low ATR regime

Multiple-testing threshold

▼

Testing several filters on the same data raises the chance that one looks good by luck. SR̂₀ = 0.303 is the Sharpe the best of 11 trials (no filter + every filter of this strategy) would reach by chance alone — computed from the spread of these trials' Sharpe values (extreme-value formula per Bailey & López de Prado 2014).

The filter passes when its Sharpe (0.091) lies above SR̂₀. This is a threshold test, not a probability: a true Deflated Sharpe would need each run's period count, skew and kurtosis. All Sharpe values are annualized over 365 calendar days.

Full analysis in Edge Library

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