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Does Bullmarket (Confirmed) help Fibonacci?

Crypto · 50 backtest runs · As of 15 Jun 2026 · Methodology

HelpsDSR ✗ not confirmed

This filter increases median CAGR by more than 1 percentage point vs. the baseline.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
-12.6%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
-8.1%
Bullmarket (Confirmed)
Δ CAGR
+4.50%
Sample
50
runs

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.259
median
Filtered Sharpe
-0.256
Δ Sharpe
+0.00
DSR
0.0%
not confirmed

How does this filter work?

BUY signals only in confirmed bull market

DSR Methodology

DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 0.8365 (expected best Sharpe from 7 random filter trials).

Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 0.0%.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

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