Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Does ATR Expansion help EMA Trend Bias?

Crypto · 283 backtest runs · As of 29 Jul 2026 · Methodology

NeutralDSR ✗ not confirmed

No material CAGR effect (±1pp vs. baseline). Filter may still reduce drawdown.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
-5.8%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
-5.0%
ATR Expansion
Δ CAGR
+0.75%
Sample
283
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-5.9%
after costs
Filtered Net CAGR
-5.2%
after costs

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.020
median
Filtered Sharpe
-0.098
Δ Sharpe
-0.08
DSR
0.0%
not confirmed

How does this filter work?

Signals only during ATR expansion (trend onset)

DSR Methodology

DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 0.7458 (expected best Sharpe from 9 random filter trials).

Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 0.0%.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

← All edge reportsComputed 29 Jul 2026 · Methodology