Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Does 200 WMA Filter help MACD Cross?

Commodities ยท 30 backtest runs ยท As of 13 Jul 2026 ยท Methodology

HurtsDSR โœ— not confirmed

This filter reduces median CAGR by more than 1 percentage point โ€” either more false signals or too many blocked trades.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
5.5%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
2.0%
200 WMA Filter
ฮ” CAGR
-3.50%
Sample
30
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
5.3%
after costs
Filtered Net CAGR
1.8%
after costs

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
0.277
median
Filtered Sharpe
0.156
ฮ” Sharpe
-0.12
DSR
24.1%
not confirmed

How does this filter work?

BUY signals only when price > 200-week MA

DSR Methodology

DSR = PSR(SRฬ‚โ‚€) per Bailey & Lรณpez de Prado (2014). SRฬ‚โ‚€ = 0.4750 (expected best Sharpe from 7 random filter trials).

Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR โ‰ฅ 90%. Current: 24.1%.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison โ€” available after sign-in.

โ† All edge reportsComputed 13 Jul 2026 ยท Methodology
200 WMA Filter + MACD Cross on Commodities โ€” Edge Analysis | Backtesting Arena