Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Does 200 WMA Filter help WMA Trend?

Commodities · 40 backtest runs · As of 22 Jun 2026 · Methodology

HurtsDSR ✗ not confirmed

This filter reduces median CAGR by more than 1 percentage point — either more false signals or too many blocked trades.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
5.6%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
2.8%
200 WMA Filter
Δ CAGR
-2.80%
Sample
40
runs

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
0.158
median
Filtered Sharpe
0.152
Δ Sharpe
-0.01
DSR
68.9%
not confirmed

How does this filter work?

BUY signals only when price > 200-week MA

DSR Methodology

DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 0.4556 (expected best Sharpe from 7 random filter trials).

Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 68.9%.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

← All edge reportsComputed 22 Jun 2026 · Methodology