Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Kung Fu Master meditating

Bitcoin Lifestyle Wuguan

Master the three paths of Bitcoin strategy — find balance between offense and defense, like a true master!

🧘 What does this tool do?

This tool compares three paths for living off your Bitcoin long-term — deterministically, transparently, with all risks visible. The Humble sells BTC to cover costs. The patient Tiger borrows against BTC, never sells. The Dragon Strike borrows more and buys additional BTC with the surplus. Adjust your starting position on the left — charts and tables instantly show which path fits your assumptions and where the dangers lurk.

Changes are simulated live.
The Humble Path
V0: Sell & Spend
Sell BTC as needed
The Patient Tiger
V1: Borrow & Hold
Borrow, never sell
The Dragon Strike
V2: Borrow & Buy
Leverage to grow

Path of Net Worth

All three paths compared over time. Shaded zones = LTV warning (yellow) / liquidation (red).

BTC Holdings Over Time

V0 falls (sells), V1 holds flat, V2 grows (buys more) — until liquidation.

BTC Netto (after debt)

What would remain if you paid off debt now? The „healing point" of borrow strategies.

Total Debt Over Time

V1 rises monotonically. V2 split: living (light) + leverage (dark).

LTV Over Time

Yellow = warning at 70 %, red = liquidation at 83 %.

The Final Decision!

MetricV0: HumbleV1: TigerV2: Dragon
Final BTC holdings0.00 BTC2.00 BTC8.54 BTC
Final debt€0€1.190.697€3.572.092
Final BTC value€0€3.833.760€16.363.322
Final BTC netto0.00 BTC1.38 BTC6.67 BTC
Final net worth€0€2.643.063€12.791.230
Highest LTV73.6 %74.8 %
Warn-LTV triggered?Year 5Year 3
Liquidation?
BTC exhausted?✕ Year 6
Total interest paid€0€447.198€1.341.593

🎯 Wuguan Wisdom

✅ Tiger beats Humble
BTC CAGR > loan rate
20.0 %>5.0 %
Tiger holds — Humble ran out of BTC.
✅ Dragon beats Tiger
BTC CAGR > rate × L/(L−1)
20.0 %>7.5 %
The Dragon Strike defeats the Tiger!
The Way of Caution

BTC does not grow at a constant 20 % per year — Bitcoin's price is subject to strong volatility. These numbers assume smooth growth. In reality, a 50 % drawdown can trigger liquidation in Variant 2 regardless of long-term trend — faster than a dragon strike. Always model worst-case scenarios.